2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on February 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[1] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.
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40 Republican National Convention delegates | ||
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| Elections in Iowa |
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Background and electorate
History of the Iowa caucus
Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[2] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[3]
Republican electorate
Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[3]
Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[4]
In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[5] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.
Candidates
Declared candidates
Former President Donald Trump and former Governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are the only main contenders to officially announce their candidacy so far.[6][7]
Potential candidates
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis is widely expected to announce his candidacy as soon as May 2023.[8] Commentators have described DeSantis as Trump's closest rival in the Republican primary based on primary polling taken in 2022 and 2023.[9][10] Former Vice President Mike Pence is also considering a candidacy for the Republican nomination.[11]
Other Republicans reportedly considering a candidacy include Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina; former Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, incumbent Governors Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Kristi Noem of South Dakota.[11]
Campaign developments
In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[12] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[13] On March 13, 2023, Trump made his first appearance in the state since announcing his candidacy, in which he spoke before a crowd in Davenport.[14]
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has not declared his candidacy, held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[15] Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, another potential candidate, has visited Iowa a total of three times since leaving office.[16]
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Matthew Whitaker, Acting United States Attorney General (2018-2019)[17]
- U.S. Representatives
- State legislators
- Steve Bradley, IA House (2021–present)[18]
- Mark Cisneros, IA House (2021–present)[19]
- Cindy Golding, IA House (2023–present)[18]
- Heather Hora, IA House (2023–present)[18]
- Craig Johnson, IA House (2023–present)[18]
- Bobby Kaufmann, IA House (2013–present)[20]
- Charlie McClintock, IA Senate (2021–present)[18]
- Anne Osmundson, IA House (2019–present)[18]
- Jeff Reichman, IA Senate (2021–present)[19]
- Brad Sherman, IA House (2023–present)[18]
- Derek Wulf, IA House (2023–present)[18]
- Notable individuals
- Eric Branstad, political consultant[21]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis |
Donald Trump |
Mike Pence |
Nikki Haley |
Kim Reynolds |
Kristi Noem |
Ben Carson |
Ted Cruz |
Marco Rubio |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Nov 14–18, 2022 | 393 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 33% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 16% |
| Club for Growth Action | Nov 11–13, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 37% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16% |
| Club for Growth Action | Aug 7–10, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 52% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Jun 22 – Jul 1, 2022 | 546 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 38% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – |
| Bellwether Research & Consulting | Mar 5–8, 2021 | 630 (RV) | – | 4% | 61% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | 13% |
See also
References
- "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- Holland, Brynn (November 25, 2019). "How the Iowa Caucus Has Shaped the US Presidential Race". History.com. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- Norwood, Candice (2020-02-06). "Do Iowa caucus winners become president? History shows mixed results". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- "GOP race divides evangelical voters in Iowa". PBS NewsHour. 2016-02-01. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- Jacobs, Jennifer (February 1, 2016). "Cruz wins GOP caucuses, beating Trump". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- "Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). docquery.fec.gov. November 15, 2022. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
- "STATEMENT OF ORGANIZATION" (PDF), docquery.fec.gov, February 14, 2023, retrieved February 15, 2023
- Contorno, Steve; Warren, Michael (November 16, 2022). "As Trump blusters, DeSantis builds his case but tells people to 'chill out' with 2024 talk". CNN. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
- Ulmer, Alexandra (2022-02-27). "Trump wins CPAC conservative meeting's 2024 presidential straw poll". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- Palmer, Ewan (2022-01-25). "Trump Blows Ron DeSantis Out of the Water in 2024 Presidential Polling". Newsweek. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- McCormick, John. "How Nikki Haley Went From Tea-Party Favorite to Governor to Trump 2024 Challenger". WSJ. Retrieved 2023-02-15.
- "Former President Donald Trump announces Iowa campaign staff". KCCI. 2023-02-20. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- Vakil, Caroline (2023-03-02). "Trump heading to Iowa this month to talk education". The Hill. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- Murray, Isabella (2023-03-13). "Trump campaigns in same Iowa city DeSantis visited Friday". ABC News. Retrieved 2023-03-13.
- Bender, Michael C. (2023-03-10). "A Glimpse of DeSantis in Iowa: Awkward, but Still Winning the Crowd". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-03-14.
- "Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes another trip to Iowa, raising 2024 speculation". Iowa Public Radio. 2022-03-12. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- Murray, Isabella. "Trump to campaign in same Iowa city DeSantis visited Friday". ABC News. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
- King, Ryan (March 13, 2023). "Trump campaign rolls out Iowa endorsements ahead of visit to early 2024 battleground". Washington Examiner. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- Jacobs, Jennifer (March 11, 2023). "DeSantis Eyes Hiring Iowa Staff in Step Toward Possible 2024 Bid". Bloomberg. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- McCullough, Caleb (February 20, 2023). "Former President Donald Trump names Iowa campaign leaders". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- Isenstadt, Alex (12 January 2023). "Trump prepares to open next phase of 2024 campaign in South Carolina". Politico. Retrieved 15 March 2023.