2022 Atlantic hurricane season

On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units. The forecast also gave a 25% chance that the ACE Index would end up being around 170 units, and a 25% likelihood the likelihood that the index would end up around 80.[10] TSR also issued an extended range forecast on December 10, 2021.[11] It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. This outlook had "large uncertainties".[11]

On April 7, CSU issued their first extended range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño.[30] On April 14, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units.[15] North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.[16]

On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively.[18] The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes.[19]

On June 2, CSU updated their extended range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after later analysis of lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer than average tropical Atlantic.[31] On June 20, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units.[23] On July 5, TSR released their third forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This prediction was largely based on the persistence of the weak La Niña into the third quarter of the year.[24] On July 7, CSU did not make changes to their updated prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[25] UKMO's updated forecast on August 2 called for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[26] Two days later, NOAA and CSU each revised their activity outlook slightly downward, though both still predicted that the season would end up being busier than the 30-year average. The revisions were made in part because of the relative slow start to the season (as compared to the past couple), with only three short-lived named storms as of the start of August.[27]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	June 5 – June 6
Peak intensity	70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min) 984 mbar (hPa)

In late May, the mid-level remnants of Hurricane Agatha in the Pacific basin interacted with a Central American Gyre. Consequently, a gradual increase in deep convection occurred over the Yucatán Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which led to the development of a low-pressure area just north of the Belize-Mexico border on June 2. After emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early the next day, the disturbance made multiple attempts at organizing into a tropical cyclone and attained tropical storm-force winds. However, strong wind shear kept the system disorganized before it struck Southwest Florida on June 4. Several hours later, the disturbance emerged into the Atlantic, where it to develop into Tropical Storm Alex at 00:00 UTC on June 5 about 85 mi (135 km) north of Grand Bahama. Additional intensification occurred as Alex moved east-northeastward due to mid-latitude westerly flow, reaching sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) around 18:00 UTC. However, drier air caused Alex to weaken on the following day, with the storm transitioning into an extratropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC roughly 105 mi (170 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. The remnants of Alex were absorbed by a baroclinic zone early on June 7.[45]

Due to the threat the developing system posed to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on it, designating it as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The precursor to Alex dropped heavy precipitation in these regions.[45] During a 30-hour period on June 2–3, Paso Real de San Diego in the province of Pinar del Río recorded about 12 inches (301 mm) of rain, and Playa Girón in Matanzas received over 8 inches (193 mm).[46] There were four storm-related deaths in Cuba, while about 750 homes, 7,900 acres (3,200 ha) of crops,[45] and numerous bridges suffered flood damage.[47] In Florida, several locations in the Upper Keys and the Miami metropolitan area observed between 10 and 15 in (250 and 380 mm) of rainfall, with a peak total of 15.28 in (388 mm) near Hollywood. Extensive street flooding occurred in the Miami area, but water entered few properties. Across Broward and Miami-Dade counties combined, there were about 3,500 power outages.[45] Damage from the precursor to Alex in Florida totaled $104,000.[48]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	July 1 – July 2 (Exited basin)
Peak intensity	60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min) 996 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave moved off the northwest coast of Africa south of 10°N on June 23, producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.[49][50] The low-level wind circulation associated with the system became better defined[51] and thunderstorm activity increased[52] on June 25–26, as it moved along a west to west-northwesterly track toward the southernmost Windward Islands. A NOAA Hurricane Hunters mission on June 27, reported tropical-storm-strength winds on the north side of the disturbance but indicated that it had not yet shown a well-defined closed circulation. Although it could not yet be classified as a tropical cyclone, due to the threat the system posed to the Lesser Antilles, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two later that same day.[53][54] Later, after moving through the southern Windward Islands late on June 28, the disturbance sped west at 26 mph (43 km/h) toward the coast of South America.[55] Over the next couple of days, the system passed just to the north of Venezuela, where it was hindered from developing a distinct low-level circulation due to its fast forward speed and its interaction with land. Yet all the while it generated sustained winds of tropical-storm strength.[56] As the disturbance moved toward Central America on the morning of July 1, it became sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical storm and was given the name Bonnie.[57] Embedded in a low-shear and warm SST environment, Bonnie started to steadily intensify.[58] At 03:00 UTC on July 2, Bonnie made landfall near the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border at its peak intensity within the Atlantic with sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h).[59] Bonnie then crossed Central America and exited into the Eastern Pacific basin 12 hours later.[60]

Bonnie and its precursor disturbance produced gusty winds and heavy rainfall as it tracked through the southern Caribbean Sea.[56] In Nicaragua, authorities reported four deaths in relation to the storm.[61]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	July 1 – July 2
Peak intensity	40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min) 1011 mbar (hPa)

An area of low pressure formed along a surface trough offshore of Savannah, Georgia, on the morning of July 1.[62] During this time the system unexpectedly developed and quickly became well organized. At 18:00 UTC that day, a tropical depression formed, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin a few hours later as it made landfall near Hunting Island, South Carolina, while simultaneously reaching peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).[63] The center of the storm remained just inland over coastal South Carolina on July 2, though most of its heavy rains and strong winds remained out over the Atlantic due to its proximity to the coast and northwesterly shear of around 25 mph (35 km/h).[64] Colin became increasingly disorganized later that day, with its circulation becoming elongated due to the wind shear and continued land interaction.[65] By 18:00 UTC on July 2, Colin's winds had decreased to 35 mph (56 km/h) and the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression. It continued to weaken rapidly, and its low-level circulation dissipated over northeastern South Carolina by the end of that day.[63]

Rainfall totals ranged from 2–3 in (51–76 mm) in parts of the Midlands of South Carolina to near 7 in (180 mm) near Charleston, South Carolina.[66] A Fourth of July weekend event in Charleston was cancelled because of flooding at the event site, as was a festival in Southport, North Carolina.[67] One person drowned on July 3, off the coast of Oak Island, North Carolina, due to rip currents.[63]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	September 1 – September 8
Peak intensity	85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min) 972 mbar (hPa)

On August 31, an area of low pressure formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic. The disturbance quickly developed into Tropical Depression Five early on September 1 roughly 715 mi (1,150 km) southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, before strengthening into Tropical Storm Danielle by 12:00 UTC. Favorable conditions such as abnormally warm seas and light wind shear allowed Danielle to become a hurricane around 24 hours later. The hurricane stalled on September 2, caught south of a blocking high, and weakened back to a tropical storm the next day due to upwelling of cooler waters. Later, the storm drifted westward, where it again strengthened into a hurricane early on September 4. After turning northwestward, Danielle reached its peak intensity with sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) late the following day.[68] It then moved over a relatively cool part of the Gulf Stream and weakened to a low-end Category 1 hurricane.[69] The hurricane briefly re-intensified when it moved over marginally warm waters on September 7, but resumed a weakening trend shortly thereafter.[70] Danielle weakened to a tropical storm early on September 8, before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone later that day. The remnant extratropical system meandered over the northeastern Atlantic before dissipating offshore Portugal on September 15.[68]

The remnants of Danielle dissipated offshore Portugal as an extratropical cyclone, bringing heavy rain to the country, including 3.3 in (84 mm) of precipitation in Guarda in 24 hours.[68] Between September 12–13, 644 accidents were reported throughout the country, along with many instances of downed trees and flash floods.[71] In Manteigas, which had been ravaged by intense summer forest fires in nearby areas of the Serra da Estrela mountain range, floods and landslides caused major damage and at least four vehicles were dragged into the Zêzere River. Portuguese authorities also reported minor wind and flood damage in Lisbon and Setúbal.[72] Much of Spain was put on yellow alert as wind, rain and thunderstorms triggered by the cyclone moved inland.[73]

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	September 2 – September 10
Peak intensity	110 mph (175 km/h) (1-min) 948 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms moved off the west coast of Africa on August 25.[74] After moving across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, the disturbance encountered environmental conditions east of the Leeward Islands that were only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone development.[75] After struggling against high wind shear for several days, the disturbance was finally able to become better organized and developed into Tropical Storm Earl early on September 3.[76] A burst of deep convection occurred near Earl's center during the evening of September 5, and a Hurricane Hunters mission into the storm later that night reported that it briefly strengthened to very near hurricane strength.[77] Earl's intensity continued to fluctuate throughout much of the next day due to continued effects of westerly deep-layer shear.[78] Later that day, the shear began to quickly diminish, and Earl became better organized, strengthening into a hurricane around 00:00 UTC on September 7.[79] By 03:00 UTC on September 8, Earl reached Category 2 strength while moving northward; Hurricane Hunters data showed it to have an eye of almost 60 mi (97 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field.[80] Three hours later the hurricane attained peak sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h).[81] Despite being forecasted to continue strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane, Earl's inner core was repeatedly interrupted due to dry air entrainment and it fluctuated in strength the following day while passing well to the east of Bermuda despite being over very warm sea surface temperatures of around 84–86 °F (29–30 °C).[82] It briefly weakened to Category 1 strength early on September 9,[83] before rebounding to Category 2 strength with a peak intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h) sustained winds and a minimum barometric pressure of 954 mbar (28.17 inHg). At this time, Earl had become a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (443 km).[84] After maintaining this intensity for several hours, Earl weakened to a Category 1 hurricane again at 15:00 UTC on September 10, then transitioned into an extratropical low south of Cape Race, Newfoundland six hours later.[85]

Two people died on September 4 in Salinas, Puerto Rico, after being struck by lightning while riding a jet ski.[86][87] Bermuda was buffeted with sustained winds of 35 mph (60 km/h) as Hurricane Earl passed within about 90 mi (145 km) of the island's eastern coast; higher gusts were reported, including one of 67 mph (108 km/h) at the National Museum of Bermuda. There were localized power outages across the archipelago but no large-scale damage was observed.[88][89] During a 36-hour period September 10–12, 7–8 in (175–200 mm) of rain fell in the St. Johns area, causing overflowing along the Waterford River which led to urban flooding. Similar rainfall amounts were also reported in communities throughout the Avalon Peninsula. Additionally, the cyclone caused rough surf which damaged the breakwater on the coast in the area of Trepassey, Newfoundland and Labrador, causing localized flooding.[90]

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	September 14 – September 23
Peak intensity	140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min) 931 mbar (hPa)

Early on September 12, the NHC began to monitor a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic for gradual development, though environmental conditions for development were assessed as only marginally favorable.[91] Even so, shower and thunderstorm activity within the disturbance began to become more concentrated later that same day,[92] then increased and became better organized during the next day.[93] The circulation associated with the system became more defined and persisted overnight and into the morning of September 14, attaining sufficient organization to designated as Tropical Depression Seven later that day.[94] Despite the continued effects of moderate westerly shear and dry mid-level air flow,[95] new satellite imagery indicated the depression had strengthened, thus at 01:45 UTC on September 15, it became Tropical Storm Fiona.[96] The storm moved over Guadeloupe as a 50 mph (80 km/h) tropical storm around 00:00 UTC on September 16 and then entered the eastern Caribbean.[97] Early on September 18, the storm strengthened into a hurricane as it approached Puerto Rico,[98] before making landfall there that afternoon about 15 mi (25 km) south-southeast of Mayaguez, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h).[99] It then emerged over the Mona Passage, and strengthened slightly further before making landfall near Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (140 km/h).[100] Fiona weakened slightly as it moved overland, but began to rapidly strengthen once back over water, becoming a Category 2 hurricane by 21:00 UTC on September 19,[101] and then a Category 3 major hurricane early the next morning near Grand Turk Island.[6] Further intensification resulted in it reaching Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) at 06:00 UTC on September 21,[102] while moving northward across very warm waters with surface temperatures of 84–86 °F (29–30 °C).[103][102]

Fiona's winds then held steady for a couple of days while its central pressure dropped to 932 mbar (27.52 inHg) at 00:00 UTC on September 22,[104] the hurricane's peak intensity as a tropical cyclone. Fiona's wind field also began to grow in size and tropical storm-strength winds impacted Bermuda for several hours on September 23, despite Fiona passing well west of the island.[105] Fiona weakened to a Category 3 hurricane late on September 23,[106] and soon thereafter turned northward and quickly transitioned into a large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it approached the coast of Nova Scotia.[107] Soon thereafter, the system made landfall in eastern Nova Scotia at 07:00 UTC on September 24, with 100 mph (160 km/h) winds and a pressure of 931 mbar (27.49 inHg), slowing rapidly as it did so.[108] It then moved over Cape Breton Island with hurricane strength winds.[109] Post-tropical Fiona then quickly weakened as it moved northward through the Gulf of St. Lawrence and over the southeastern Labrador Peninsula. The remnants then dissipated over the Labrador Sea near the southwest coast of Greenland on September 27.Canada.[110]

Altogether, the storm was directly responsible for 7 deaths: 1 in Guadeloupe, 2 in Puerto Rico, 2 in the Dominican Republic, and 2 in Canada. Additionally, there were also 22 indirect death: 21 in Puerto Rico and 1 in Canada.[110] Still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Maria in 2017, torrential rains fell island-wide on Puerto Rico on September 18–19, up to 25 in (640 mm) in some regions, causing destructive flash flooding that washed out roads and bridges. In addition, the effects of the storm resulted in an island-wide power grid failure.[100][111] Damage to public infrastructure alone in Puerto Rico exceeds $5 billion.[112] In Canada, homes and businesses across Atlantic Canada and Quebec's North Coast were destroyed, and several hundred thousand people were left without power in Fiona's wake.[113] Insured damages in the region total more than $495 million (USD), making Fiona the costliest storm on record in Atlantic Canada.[112]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	September 20 – September 25
Peak intensity	65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min) 994 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa and entered the Atlantic on September 12, initially producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.[114] After moving generally westward to about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, deep convection began consolidating along the northern side of the wave between September 16 and September 17. Although a surface low developed on September 19, convection remained insufficiently organized. However, upon producing a well-defined center and persistent deep convection on September 20, the system became Tropical Depression Eight approximately 1,100 mi (1,770 km) east of Bermuda. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Gaston six hours later while moving north-northeastward along the western periphery of a high-pressure area. Although water temperatures were only marginally favorable and moderate to strong wind shear impacted the storm, Gaston strengthened to peak with sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) early on September 21.[114]

However, additional strengthening was prevented as dry air intruded into Gaston. A blocking mid-level high pressure caused the storm to turn southeastward and then southwestward on September 23 and later to the westward on the following day.[114] Passing between the Azores late on September 23 and early on September 24, Gaston generated heavy rainfall across the archipelago, especially in the western and central islands.[115] A weather station at Horta on Faial Island measured a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h) as Gaston passed through. Convection diminished significantly as the storm continued westward and by 00:00 UTC on September 26, Gaston became extratropical about 345 mi (555 km) west-southwest of Flores Island. The remnant low moved west-southwestward until dissipating about 48 hours later.[114]

Category 5 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	September 23 – September 30
Peak intensity	160 mph (260 km/h) (1-min) 937 mbar (hPa)

Between September 14 and September 15, a tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa and moved westward for several days with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although the system gained additional convection upon reaching the southeastern Caribbean on September 21, wind shear prevented further development. By 06:00 UTC on September 23, however, Tropical Depression Nine formed around 150 mi (240 km) east-northeast of Aruba. The depression moved west-northwestward due to a building mid-level ridge and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ian early the next day. Ian then turned westward and initially failed to intensify further in an environment with moderate to strong wind shear. After curving to the northwest, the storm strengthened into a hurricane early on September 26. Thereafter, Ian rapidly intensified, becoming a major hurricane about 24 hours later. Around 08:30 UTC on September 27, the hurricane made landfall in Cuba near La Coloma, Pinar del Río Province, with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). The cyclone hardly weakened while crossing Cuba and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico around 14:00 UTC.[116]

Early on September 28, Ian struck Dry Tortugas, Florida, with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) as the storm headed north-northeastward along a broad trough and the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico then allowed another period of rapid deepening to commence. At 12:00 UTC on September 28, Ian briefly attained Category 5 status and peaked with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 937 mbar (27.7 inHg). Less favorable conditions caused Ian to weaken to a Category 4 hurricane prior to its landfall on Cayo Costa Island, Florida, with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h), at 19:05 UTC. About an hour and a half later, the storm struck near Punta Gorda, with winds of 145 mph (230 km/h). The hurricane weakened while slowly traversing the Florida peninsula, falling to tropical storm status while emerging into the Atlantic near Cape Canaveral at 12:00 UTC on September 29. Although most of its convection was displaced north of the center, Ian quickly re-intensified into a hurricane six hours later. Early on September 30, the storm accelerated after turning northward. Ian made its final landfall at 18:05 UTC near Georgetown, South Carolina, with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h). The storm soon merged with a cold front and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone by 00:00 UTC on October 1. Several hours later, the remnants of Ian dissipated over North Carolina.[116]

While in the early stages of developing, the system brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Trinidad and Tobago,[117][118] the ABC islands, and to the northern coast of South America on September 21–22.[119] Ian also caused five deaths in Cuba.[116] Much of western portions of the country experienced hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall, which exceeded 20 in (510 mm) in some areas.[116] Consequently, Ian left extensive impacts to factories, hospitals, roads, tobacco farms, and homes,[120] with more than 100,000 dwellings damaged or destroyed in Pinar del Río Province alone.[116] Three provinces initially lost power, but later the nation's entire electrical grid collapsed.[121] Significant storm surge inundation occurred along the coasts of the Gulf of Guanahacabibes and Isla de la Juventud.[122] Storm surge and high winds led to extreme damage in Southwest Florida. Lee County, where Ian made two landfalls at Category 4 intensity and produced a storm surge which peaked at 7.25 ft (2.21 m) in Fort Myers, reported some degree of impact to 52,514 structures, with 5,369 of those demolished and 14,245 others extensively damaged. Bridges and roadways, especially along the coast or on the barrier islands, also suffered major impacts. In neighboring Collier County, strong winds and storm surge inflicted major damage to more than 3,500 buildings and destroyed 33 others. The outerbands of Ian spawned 14 tornadoes in Florida, including an EF-2 tornado that caused significant damage to some condominiums and injured two people in Kings Point.[123] Ian also produced historic flooding across Central Florida due to a wide swath of rainfall totals generally ranging from 10–20 in (250–510 mm), with Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties reporting damage or destruction to thousands of buildings and homes. More than 3.28 million customers across the state lost electricity. An estimated 150 fatalities occurred in Florida, with 36 of the direct deaths reported in Lee County. Later, heavy rainfall and storm surge caused damage from the Carolinas to Maryland, but to a much lesser extent than in Florida. Ian also left five fatalities in North Carolina and one in Virginia, all due to indirect causes. Overall, Ian caused approximately $112.9 billion in damage in the United States, making it the nation's third costliest tropical cyclone.[116]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	September 23 – September 24
Peak intensity	40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min) 1003 mbar (hPa)

On September 22, a tropical wave being monitored by the NHC emerged off the coast of West Africa into the tropical Atlantic east of Cabo Verde.[119] It quickly organized, becoming Tropical Depression Ten at 12:00 UTC on September 23, and then strengthened into Tropical Storm Hermine six hours later.[124] It is one of few tropical cyclones on record to form and to track between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of Africa.[119] Development beyond a weak, 40 mph (65 km/h)-tropical storm was stymied by southwesterly shear into the next day as the system moved northward. On account of the shear, Hermine weakened into a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC on September 24, and degenerated into a post-tropical low within 12 hours, while situated about 240 mi (385 km) northwest of Nouadhibou, Mauritania. The remnant low moved northeastward until degenerating into a surface trough early on September 26 to the southwest of the Canary Islands.[124]

Hermine brought heavy rainfall to the Canary Islands, peaking at 20.87 in (530 mm) on La Palma, which damaged many schools and some roadways, caused power outages impacting several thousands of people,[124] and downed trees. Additionally, more than 140 flights were cancelled across the archipelago.[125] Damage in the Canary Islands exceeded 10 million euro (US$9.8 million),[126] while no fatalities were reported there.[124]

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
Duration	September 28 – September 29
Peak intensity	35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min) 1008 mbar (hPa)

On September 17, a tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa. After producing disorganized convective activity for the next few days as the wave headed westward, showers and thunderstorms consolidated enough on September 20 that a low-pressure area formed. The system then moved northward due to a break in a mid-level ridge and eastward by September 27 due to a nearby broad trough. Around 00:00 UTC on September 28, the low organized into Tropical Depression Eleven approximately 600 mi (965 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The depression resumed a general northward motion due to the aforementioned ridge. Despite periodic bursts in deep convection, the depression remained poorly organized due to increasing wind shear. Centered about 800 mi (1,285 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands, the system degenerated into a remnant low by 12:00 UTC on September 29, which soon transitioned into a trough of low pressure.[127]

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
Duration	October 4 – October 6
Peak intensity	35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min) 1007 mbar (hPa)

On September 29, a tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave waned during the next few days as it tracked westward. However, a nearby Kelvin wave enhanced the wave's convective activity beginning on October 3. By early the following day, the convection became more concentrated and organized around the center, resulting in the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve around 12:00 UTC about 450 mi (720 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moving generally northwestward due to a weakness in a mid-level ridge, the depression encountered strong wind shear, with the center of the cyclone becoming completely exposed from its convection by early the following day. Throughout the day on October 5, the depression's circulation became more elongated. A further increase in wind shear on October 6 caused the depression to degenerate into a surface trough approximately 750 mi (1,205 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The trough associated with the remnants of the depression became indistinguishable within a few days.[128]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	October 7 – October 9 (Exited basin)
Peak intensity	85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min) 982 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa on September 26. While moving westward, the wave remained weak and consisted of little convection for the next few days. Convection became more concentrated as the wave reached the Caribbean, with the system organizing into a tropical depression early on October 7 near Curaçao. A strong burst of deep convection developed near the center of the depression as it moved across the Guajira Peninsula in the early morning of October 7, and soon afterward, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Julia over the adjacent southwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, Julia began moving in a more westward direction along the southern periphery of a building ridge. Low wind shear, high humidity at the mid-levels, and very warm seas caused the storm to intensify into a hurricane at 00:00 UTC on October 9. About six hours later, Julia peaked with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). The storm then made landfall near Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua, at 07:15 UTC. Julia's relatively quick movement, as well as its passage across areas comparatively less rugged than to the north, caused the cyclone to only gradually weaken, falling to tropical storm intensity late on October 9. Early the following day, Julia emerged into the Pacific Ocean but quickly dissipated after striking El Salvador several hours later.[129]

On October 5, the disturbance brought heavy thunderstorms to several of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean coast of South America. More than 2 in (51 mm) of rain fell in Trinidad and Tobago in less than a half hour, causing significant flash flooding.[130][131] A few days later, heavy rainfall occurred in northern areas of Venezuela and Colombia, causing widespread flooding. There were 54 indirect flood fatalities in Venezuela. In Central America, flash flooding and associated mudslides caused widespread damage along with 35 direct fatalities. Altogether, there were at least 89 Julia-related fatalities: 54 in Venezuela, 14 in Guatemala, 10 in El Salvador, 5 in Nicaragua, 4 in Honduras, and 2 in Panama. Nicaragua suffered extensive flood damage totaling about $400 million. Over 1 million people in the country lost electricity during the storm. Additionally, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama reported damage to thousands of homes and significant crop losses.[129] Loses in Panama alone totaled least $6 million.[132]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration	October 11 – October 14
Peak intensity	60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min) 997 mbar (hPa)

A disturbance associated with the remnants of Julia formed over the Yucatán Peninsula on October 10 and reached the Bay of Campeche on October 11. The system rapidly acquired a well-defined circulation and organized sufficiently to become a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on October 11, while about 70 mi (110 km) north-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Karl six hours later. A Hurricane Hunters mission into the storm on October 12 found that Karl's sustained winds had increased to 60 mph (95 km/h) as it moved slowly northward. However, increasing wind shear began to weaken the storm early on October 13 as it stalled over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, Karl's central pressure began to fall slightly after it began moving south-southeastward as the day progressed. Moderate northwesterly shear and drier mid-level air continued to inhibit Karl from strengthening on October 14.[133] Although satellite images that morning showed that the dense overcast around the storm's low-level center had become more symmetric overnight, with its heavy thunderstorms concentrated to the southeast of the center,[134] dry air and wind shear snuffed out all of Karl's deep convection several hours later. Around 00:00 UTC on October 15, Karl degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Karl moved towards Tabasco before dissipating about 24 hours later.[133]

Karl caused significant flooding in southern Mexico, which damaged homes, businesses, and bridges throughout the region. The heaviest rainfall occurred in Tabasco and neighboring Chiapas; Camoapa, Tabasco, recorded 15.3 in (387.9 mm) of rain in 24 hours on October 14–15, while Río de Janeiro, Chiapas, recorded 13.5 in (342.4 mm) during that same period.[133] Numerous families had to be evacuated from their homes because of the flooding,[135] which also forced the evacuation of more than a thousand people attending a religious event in Pichucalco, Chiapas. Additionally, three storm-related fatalities were reported in Chiapas: one in Pichucalco and two in Juárez.[133]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	October 31 – November 5
Peak intensity	90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min) 985 mbar (hPa)

On October 28, a broad area of low pressure developed over the southeastern Caribbean causing rain and thunderstorms.[136] Early on October 30, data from two Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions into the disturbance showed that the low's center of circulation was becoming better defined and that it was producing winds of 35–40 mph (55–65 km/h) to the north of its center.[137] As a result, and due to the threat the developing system posed to land areas in the central Caribbean, the NHC initiated advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen later that day.[138] The disturbance became organized as Tropical Storm Lisa at 15:00 UTC on October 31, south of Jamaica. At the time, most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity was occurring to the east and south sides of the center as a result of westerly wind shear.[139] Later that day the shear winds began to decrease, allowing Lisa to become better organized. The storm began to form more convection to the northwest of the center and data from a hurricane hunters mission indicated that the low-level circulation was becoming less elongated.[140] The storm strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane on the morning of November 2, as it approached the coast of Belize,[141] which it crossed later that day, near of the Sibun River, with sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h),[142] Lisa weakened inland as it moved over northern Guatemala and then southern Mexico, where it became a tropical depression on the morning of November 3.[143] The cyclone then moved over the Bay of Campeche early the following day, where its deep convection increased, though confined primarily to the north of its center by strong winds.[144] On November 5, the cyclone was downgraded to into a remnant low.[145]

There were no reports of fatalities connected with Lisa. Passing over Belize City as it made landfall on November 2, High winds knocked down trees and electric poles, and damaged several homes; some structures collapsed completely. Altogether, the 12 shelters set up in the city housed 1,221 people. In Guatemala, Lisa caused flooding and a landslide, which damaged homes and property. About 143 people in the municipalities of Melchor de Mencos and San José were evacuated to shelters.[146][147] Lisa also brought heavy rains to southern Mexico.[143]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	November 1 – November 3
Peak intensity	85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min) 965 mbar (hPa)

On October 31, the NHC began monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure located in the central subtropical Atlantic that, although attached to a frontal boundary, had a small core with gale-force winds and a concentrated area of convection near its center.[148] Early on November 1, deep convection developed near the center, which had become separated from the frontal boundary. At the same time the system developed a non-frontal warm core, resulting in the formation of Tropical Storm Martin.[149] The storm continued to organize into the next day, as a better-defined eye developed, with a tight banding pattern wrapping around the center, which resulted in Martin strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane.[150] While maintaining hurricane strength, Martin transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on November 3, over the open North Atlantic.[151] A few days later, the cyclone approached Ireland as a large and intense European windstorm.[152][153]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration	November 7 – November 11
Peak intensity	75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min) 980 mbar (hPa)

On November 4, the NHC began monitoring the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic where a large non-tropical low pressure system was expected to develop within a few days.[154] On November 5, an area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms developed just north of Puerto Rico.[155] Benefiting from the inflow of tropical moisture from the Caribbean and very warm 83 °F (28 °C) sea surface temperatures, the disturbance was soon exhibiting some subtropical characteristics,[156] and gradually becoming better organized. This trend continued, and it was classified as Subtropical Storm Nicole at 09:00 UTC on November 7.[157] The following morning, inner-core convection within the system improved and the radius of its maximum winds contracted, indicating that Nicole had transitioned into a tropical cyclone.[158] At 16:55 UTC on November 9, Nicole made landfall at Marsh Harbour, Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, with sustained winds of 70 mph (115 km/h).[159] Several hours later, the storm strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane while simultaneously making landfall on Grand Bahama with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h).[160] At 08:00 UTC on November 10, Nicole made landfall on North Hutchinson Island, near Vero Beach, Florida, with 75 mph (120 km/h) sustained winds.[161] Nicole then weakened to a tropical storm inland, as it moved across Central Florida. Later that day, its center briefly emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, north of Tampa, before moving onshore again northwest of Cedar Key in Florida's Big Bend region.[162] Inland, the storm weakened to a depression, as it moved into southwestern Georgia.[163] Later, on the afternoon of November 11, Nicole become post-tropical while over West Virginia.

Despite being relatively weak, Nicole's large size produced widespread heavy rainfall and strong winds across the Greater Antilles, The Bahamas, and Florida, knocking out power and inflicting significant damage in many areas. Days of strong on-shore wind flow onto the east coast of Florida produced severe beach erosion, especially in Volusia, St. Johns, and Flagler counties. Eleven deaths altogether were indirectly connected to the storm, six in the Dominican Republic and five in Florida.[164]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four off the northeastern coast of Mexico on August 20

On August 15, the NHC first noted the potential for tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave that was located over the central Caribbean Sea.[165] The low emerged over the Gulf early on August 19 producing disorganized showers.[166] Due to the threat the developing system posed to northeastern Mexico and South Texas, the NHC initiated advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four at 21:00 UTC that same day.[36] As the disturbance moved northwestward toward the Gulf coast of Mexico on August 20, a Hurricane Hunters mission found that it was still a surface trough.[167] Later that day, it moved inland, crossing the coast about 60 mi (95 km) southwest of the mouth of the Rio Grande.[168] With that, the window of opportunity for tropical development closed, and the NHC issued its last advisory on the system at 03:00 UTC on August 21.[36] The disturbance brought heavy rain to coastal Tamaulipas and coastal South Texas,[168] but no significant impacts associated with the disturbance were reported.[36]

On March 29, 2023, during the 45th Session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Fiona and Ian from its rotating name lists due to the catastrophic damages they caused, and they will never be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. They will be replaced with Farrah and Idris for the 2028 season.[171]