Next French legislative election

Legislative elections in France are expected to be held in 2027 to elect the 577 members of the 16th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic. The elections are expected to take place following the 2027 French presidential election.[1] However there has been speculation that President Macron could call a snap legislative election if his government loses an important vote in the National Assembly, as he lacks a legislative majority and has the constitutional right to call snap elections.[2][3][4]

Next French legislative election
France
All 577 seats of the National Assembly
289 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
Ensemble Élisabeth Borne 250
NUPES Jean-Luc Mélenchon 151
RN Jordan Bardella 88
UDC Éric Ciotti 68
PRG Guillaume Lacroix 1
Independents – 19
Incumbent Prime Minister
Élisabeth Borne
Renaissance

Background

Following the 2022 French legislative election, Ensemble lost its majority in the National Assembly. Among the member parties of the coalition was Emmanuel Macron's party, Renaissance - for the first time since 1997, the incumbent president stopped having absolute majority in the Parliament. Meanwhile the two main opposition groups, left-wing New Ecological and Social People's Union (NUPES) and far-right National Rally (RN) saw a surge in seats won. Despite that, no group won the absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament for the first time since 1988.[5]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

First round
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample

size

 LO
NPA
EXG		 NUPES DVG
PRG
FGR		 ECO PA ENS DVC UDC DVD DLF
LP		 RN REC
EXD		 REG DIV
PCF LFI PÉ PS
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,808 1% 25.5% 3% – – 21.5% 11.5% 1% – 24.5% 4.5% 6%
Ifop 20–21 Mar 2023 1,094 1% 26% 5% – – 22% 10% 2% 1% 26% 5% 2%
1% 3% 11% 9% 7% 3% – – 21% 10% 1% 1% 26% 5% 2%
Harris-Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 1% 24% 6% – – 24% 1% 10% 3% 1% 22% 4% 4%
Cluster17 4–6 Nov 2022 2,151 1.5% 24.5% 3% – 1% 25% 0.5% 10.5% 2% 2% 20% 5% 1% 4%
Ifop 2–4 Nov 2022 1,513 1.5% 25% 4% – – 27% 11% 0.5% 21% 5.5% 2.5%
1.5% 3% 11% 7% 8% 2% – – 26% 11% 0% 21% 5% 1.5%
Ministry of the Interior
(Le Monde)		 12 Jun 2022 – 1.17%
(1.19%)		 25.66%
(26.16%)		 3.70%
(3.30%)		 2.67%
(–)		 25.75%
(25.80%)		 1.25%
(1.30%)		 11.29%
(11.30%)		 2.33%
(1.92%)		 1.13%
(1.21%)		 18.68%
(18.68%)		 4.24%
(4.25%)		 1.28%
(1.09%)		 0.85%
(3.80%)

Seat projections
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 LO
NPA
EXG		 NUPES DVG
PRG
FGR		 ECO PA ENS DVC UDC DVD DLF
LP		 RN REC
EXD		 REG DIV
PCF LFI PÉ PS
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,808 – 150–180 15–20 – 130–155 60–75 – 150–175 – – 12–15
Harris-Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 – 158–168 – – 234–244 69–79 91–100 – 8–14
Ministry of the Interior
(Le Monde)		 19 Jun 2022 – 0
(0)		 131
(142)		 22
(13)		 0
(0)		 0
(0)		 245
(246)		 4
(5)		 64
(64)		 10
(9)		 1
(1)		 89
(89)		 0
(1)		 10
(6)		 1
(1)

References
  1. "What are the dates of the next elections?". Service-Public.fr. Retrieved 2022-12-25.
  2. "France heading to the polls in 2023?". www.euractiv.com. 2022-12-23. Retrieved 2022-12-25.
  3. Santolo, Alessandra Scotto di (2022-12-23). "Emmanuel Macron at risk of early election chaos in 2023". Express.co.uk. Retrieved 2022-12-25.
  4. Lichfield, John (2022-08-23). "Will Macron call another election?". UnHerd. Retrieved 2022-12-25.
  5. Bernard, Mathias. "Parliamentary elections shock France's political order to its core". The Conversation. Retrieved 2022-12-23.

See also
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