2023 Turkish presidential election

Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Turkey on 14 May 2023[1][2] as part of the 2023 general elections, alongside parliamentary elections. Voters will elect a new president for a term of five years. President Erdoğan initially signalled that the election might be held early on 14 May 2023, a reference to the 1950 general election that previously ended Turkey's one-party regime under the Republican People's Party (CHP).[3] However, the dating was initially brought to uncertainty following the deadly 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake which led to calls for postponement of the election date.[4][5] On 10 March 2023, Erdoğan signed the decree for the elections to be held on 14 May 2023.[1][2]

2023 Turkish presidential election

14 May 2023
28 May 2023 (second round, if necessary)
Opinion polls
 
Candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Party AKP CHP
Alliance People's Alliance Nation Alliance

 
Candidate Muharrem İnce Sinan Oğan
Party MP Independent
Alliance Ancestral Alliance


Incumbent President

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
AKP



Background

2018 elections

The previous Turkish general election took place on 24 June 2018. The election marked the country's transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, as narrowly endorsed by voters in the controversial 2017 constitutional referendum. That election resulted in a victory for incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had held the position since 2014. Meanwhile, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its absolute majority in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey for the first time since June 2015, forcing it to rely on its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahçeli, to pass legislation.

Date

The regular scheduled date for the first round of the elections was set for 18 June 2023. However, the electoral system allowed for moving the date forward.

In 2020, there were speculations about a snap election prior to the regular one in 2023.[6] At the time, Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of coalition partner MHP, ruled them out.[6] In a written statement, he said that elections would not be held before 2023. He also confirmed that the current coalition between AKP and MHP will remain intact and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be their joint nominee for President.[6]

Discussion on snap elections

In early January 2023 the AKP mentioned eventual snap elections to take place on either the 16 or 30 April or the 14 May.[7] But the so called "Table of Six" composed by six opposition parties announced that they would not agree to snap elections after the 6 April.[7] On 18 January 2023, Erdoğan, the President of Turkey, signalled that the elections will be held earlier than the scheduled date, specifically on 14 May 2023, in a symbolic reference to the election victory of former Prime Minister Adnan Menderes on 14 May in the 1950 Turkish general election, beating the candidate of the (then governing) party CHP.[8] On 22 January 2023, Erdoğan stated that the elections will be held on 14 May. In view of that date, the Table of Six announced that Erdogan cannot run for president without the consent of the parliament.[9]

Discussion on postponing election date

After an earthquake struck the country in February 2023, Erdogan announced a state of emergency for 10 affected provinces, which would end a week ahead of the election date of the 14 May.[10] The opposition voted against the imposition in parliament.[11] Then on 13 February 2023, Bülent Arınç, a former AKP Member of Parliament, alleged the elections could not be held in the current situation in either May or June, and the elections should be postponed.[11] AKP spokesperson Ömer Çelik responded that Arınç's statement is his own personal view and does not bind the party.[12] Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu from the opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP) responded to Arınç's statement that the constitution would not provide a possibility to postpone the elections except in the case of war.[11] Further Mustafa Tolga Öztürk from the Good Party reasoned only the parliament has the authority to postpone elections and Selahattin Demirtaş from the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) suspected such a measure would result in a political coup.[11]

Electoral system

The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote in order to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected. The first direct election to the Turkish presidency was held in 2014, after a referendum in 2007 abolished the previous system under which the head of state was elected by the legislature, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The President of Turkey is subject to term limits, and may serve at most two times five-year terms.[13] If snap elections were held before the end of the second term, a third term would be permitted.[14][15] Snap elections can be held either with the consent of 60% of the MPs in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey or ordered by presidential decree. Only snap elections via the consent of the Grand National Assembly during a president's second term can allow the president a third term[16]

Prospective presidential candidates must be at least 40 years old and must have completed higher education. Any political party that has won 5% of the vote in the previous parliamentary election can put forward a candidate, although parties that have not met this threshold can form alliances and field joint candidates as long as their total vote share exceeds 5%. Independents can run if they collect 100,000 signatures from the electorate.[17]

Candidates

List

On 1 April, as a result of a draw by the Supreme Electoral Council, the places of four presidential candidates on the ballot paper have been determined as follows:

Official list of presidential candidates in order they appear on the ballot paper[25]
1 2 3 4
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Sinan Oğan
People's Alliance Nation Alliance Ancestral Alliance
AKP MHP BBP YRP MP CHP İYİ DEVA GP SP DP ZP AP ÜP TÜİP

Nominations

The Constitution of Turkey, amended following the 2017 constitutional referendum, allows any party with a parliamentary group (at least 20 MPs) to nominate a presidential candidate. The remaining candidates were required to collect at least 100,000 signatures.

Voters were able to give signatures to their preferred presidential candidate between 22 March and 27 March at their local electoral council branch.

On 24 March, the New Welfare Party decided to join the People's Alliance. After this decision, Fatih Erbakan announced that he had ended the candidacy process in favor of Erdoğan.[26]

Party Candidate Daily signatures Result
22 March[27] 23 March[28] 24 March[29] 25 March[30] 26 March[31] 27 March[32]
MP Muharrem İnce
28,235
51,367
76,901
Green tickY 104,357
109,745
114,657
Green tickY Nominated
YRP Fatih Erbakan
27,910
46,725
69,079
69,159
69,200
69,255
Red XN Not nominated
Sinan Oğan
15,573
25,924
39,317
63,027
Green tickY 102,667
111,502
Green tickY Nominated
VP Doğu Perinçek
6,679
11,792
16,192
20,400
23,776
27,055
Red XN Not nominated
Yakup Türkal
993
1,645
2,031
2,462
2,780
3,137
Red XN Not nominated
Erkan Trükten
397
755
1,116
1,604
1,940
2,588
Red XN Not nominated
Ahmet Özal
237
567
807
1,025
1,311
1,544
Red XN Not nominated
İrfan Uzun
176
319
447
698
1,001
1,263
Red XN Not nominated
Halil Murat Ünver
119
211
285
369
444
538
Red XN Not nominated
Hilmi Özden
60
151
225
333
405
478
Red XN Not nominated
Davut Turan
34
68
92
106
111
122
Red XN Not nominated
Totals
80,413
139,524
206,494
263,540
313,380
332,139

Endorsements

Parties

Candidate Endorsement Ideology
Erdoğan
AKP
MHP Nationalist Movement Party[33] Turkish ultranationalism
BBP Great Unity Party[34] Turkish Islamonationalism
HÜDAPAR Free Cause Party[35] Islamic extremism[36]
YRP New Welfare Party[37] Millî Görüş
DSP Democratic Left Party[38] Ecevitism
Kılıçdaroğlu
CHP
İYİ Good Party[20] Turkish nationalism
DEVA Democracy and Progress Party[20] Liberal conservatism
GP Future Party[20] Conservatism
SP Felicity Party[20] Millî Görüş
DP Democrat Party[20] Liberal conservatism
TİP Workers' Party of Turkey[39] Socialism
TKP Communist Party of Turkey[40][41] Communism
TDP Party for Change in Turkey[42] Social democracy
MP Homeland Party (second round)[43] Populism[44][45]
LDP Liberal Democratic Party[46][47] Classical liberalism
BTP Independent Turkey Party[48] Kemalism
HKP People's Liberation Party[49] Communism
SOL Parti Left Party[50] Socialism
MTP Nationalist Turkey Party[51] Turkish nationalism
KP Women's Party[52] Feminism
Yeşiller Green Party[53] Green politics
TEK Parti Technology Development Party[54] Liberalism
Oğan
Independent
ZP Victory Party[24] Anti-immigration
AP Justice Party[24] Liberal conservatism
ÜP My Country Party[24] Turkish nationalism
TÜİP Turkey Alliance Party[24] Kemalism

International organizations

Candidate Endorsement Ideology
Kılıçdaroğlu
CHP
Party of European Socialists[55][56] Social democracy

Individuals

Candidate Endorsement
Erdoğan
AKP
Shavkat Mirziyoyev[57][58] 2nd President of Uzbekistan
Kılıçdaroğlu
CHP
Ahmet Necdet Sezer[59] 10th President of Turkey

Controversies

Erdogan's right to seek re-election

Before the 2018 elections, Turkish presidents were serving as heads of state within a parliamentary system. After the 2017 constitutional referendum, Turkey adopted a presidential system in which the president serves as the head of government. Some opposition politicians state that since Erdoğan was elected president twice in 2014 and 2018, he cannot be a candidate again unless an early election is called by the Parliament, as stated in Article 116 of the constitution.[9] Some jurists argue that since the presidential system was introduced in 2018 and a new office was formed apart from the similarity in name, the 2018 election was Erdoğan's first term in the new system and that he has the right to be a candidate again.[60][61]

Assassination threats

On March 10, CHP parliamentary group deputy chair Özgür Özel claimed that Kılıçdaroğlu received assassination threats by a unknown groups and was offered a minister's armored vehicle by the government but he rejected the proposal and kept his official car.[62]

Attack on Good Party Istanbul Headquarters

On 31 March 2023, the Istanbul headquarters of the Good Party was targeted in a shooting attack.[63] No one was harmed in the shooting. Akşener criticized Erdoğan after the attack by saying "A political party cannot be intimidated one and a half months before an election. We are not afraid. I fear nothing but God. Mr. Recep, I am not afraid of you. But you are the president and you are responsible for every citizen in this country." The attackers were emboldened by the president’s harsh words against the opposition, Akşener said[64][65][66]

Upon investigation, it became clear that a nighttime security guard had fired his gun at burglars – only to hit the building by mistake with two stray bullets. President Erdoğan said in response to Akşener "The truth has come out, are you now going to apologize to me?"[67][68]

Attack on CHP Istanbul Headquarters

On April 6, 2023, CHP’s Istanbul headquarters were attacked with gunfire. Canan Kaftancıoğlu said that six or seven bullets were fired at the building.[69]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election during the campaign period

See also

References

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