2023 Dutch Senate election

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the provincial councils of the country's twelve provinces, and, following law changes in 2017 and 2022, electoral colleges representing the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba[2][3] and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections.

The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation.[4]

Since 2017, the Netherlands has had coalition governments consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). After the 2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as the Labour Party (PvdA), GroenLinks and JA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation.[5]

In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This makes the election an important step for the PvdA–GroenLinks alliance.[6]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate.[7] The government is also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation[8] and its bill for the distribution of asylum seekers.[9]

The government is therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties are divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll shows that a majority of D66 voters wants the government to cooperate with PvdA–GroenLinks, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would prefer for the government to cooperate with BBB.[10]

The graph and table below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based on opinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based on exit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections.

Projections in November 2022 predicted a drop to just 23 seats for the coalition, then rose to a peak of 28 in late February 2023, followed by a drop down to 22 after the provincial elections of 19 March 2023 allowed more precise predictions.

The ANP projected Senate election results[11] based on the representatives chosen in earlier the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections, who will elect the Senate, shown below with changes from the 2019 election.

The coalition parties, VVD, D66, CDA and CU, are all expected to lose seats. For opposition parties, there is a mixed story. The new BBB party is projected to be the largest party in the Senate. Other new parties present are expected to be JA21 and Volt. The alliance of PvdA and GL will gain one seat. The FvD drops from 12 down to 2 seats.

The coalition's total seats are projected to drop from 32 to 22 seats, thus requiring even more support from opposition parties to achieve a majority in votes (38 needed). A majority could be reached with support from BBB. The expected 15 seats of just the PvdA-GL alliance will be insufficient with the coalition to achieve a majority and the support of at least another opposition party will be required.