2023 Murcian regional election

The 2023 Murcian regional election will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2023 Murcian regional election
28 May 2023
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader José Vélez Fernando López Miras José Ángel Antelo
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since 20 November 2021 3 May 2017 2 January 2023
Last election 17 seats, 32.5% 16 seats, 32.4% 4 seats, 9.5%
Current seats 17 16 1
Seats needed 6 7 22
 
Leader María José Ros María Marín
Party CS Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since 8 February 2023 18 January 2023
Last election 6 seats, 12.0% 2 seats, 7.6%[lower-alpha 1]
Current seats 2 2
Seats needed 21 21
Incumbent President

Fernando López Miras
PP


Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally.[3]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.[5][6]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 17 17
People's Parliamentary Group PP 16 16
Citizens Parliamentary Group INDEP 4 4
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 1 4
INDEP 3
Mixed Group CS 2 4
Podemos 1
Equo 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 José Vélez Social democracy 32.47% 17 ☒N [7]
PP
List
 Fernando López Miras Conservatism
Christian democracy		 32.35% 16 checkY
CS
List
 María José Ros Liberalism 11.99% 6 ☒N [8]
[9]
Vox
List
 José Ángel Antelo Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 9.47% 4 ☒N [10]
Podemos–
IU–AV
List
 María Marín Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 7.59%[lower-alpha 1] 2 ☒N [11]
[12]
[13]
CV
List
 Helena Vidal Green Politics ☒N [14]
[15]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP CS Vox Podemos MCC IU–V–RM Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1] 24–31 Mar 2023 ? 64.3 29.5
15		 42.9
21		 2.8
0		 12.4
6		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 7.6
3		 – 13.4
Actuatech/PSOE[p 2] 2 Feb–3 Mar 2023 1,200 64.0 30.8
17/18		 32.6
17/18		 2.9
0		 14.5
7/8		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.1
2/3		 – 1.8
CEMOP[p 3] 23–31 Jan 2023 820 64.7 29.7
14/15		 40.7
20/21		 2.5
0		 14.3
7		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.4
3		 – 11.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 4][p 5] 2–10 Jan 2023 779 ? 29.3
14/15		 41.4
20/21		 2.5
0		 15.3
7		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.2
2		 – 12.1
InvyMark[p 6] 12–18 Dec 2022 1,100 ? 28.6
13/14		 37.6
18/19		 2.1
0		 20.1
10		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.6
2		 – 9.0
CIS[lower-alpha 3][p 7][p 8] 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 329 ? 32.9
15/17		 41.4
18/23		 0.6
0/2		 10.2
4/6		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 8.1
3/5		 0.3
0		 8.5
CEMOP[p 9] 3–17 Oct 2022 820 63.5 29.3
15		 39.6
20		 2.4
0		 15.2
8		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.6
2		 – 10.3
InvyMark[p 10][p 11] 27 Jun–6 Jul 2022 1,500 ? 29.9
14/15		 33.5
16/17		 2.1
0		 24.3
11/12		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.5
3		 – 3.6
CEMOP[p 12] 31 May–8 Jun 2022 820 68.0 28.8
14		 38.1
19		 3.2
1		 18.5
9		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 4.5
2		 – 9.3
UCAM[p 13] 4–21 Apr 2022 800 59.1 28.6
14		 38.6
19		 3.3
1		 16.2
8		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.3
3		 – 10.0
CEMOP[p 14] 15 Feb–2 Mar 2022 820 64.0 30.3
15		 36.6
19		 2.2
0		 16.2
8		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.5
3		 – 6.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15] 31 Oct 2021 ? ? 29.5
15		 42.8
22		 2.7
0		 12.9
6		 [lower-alpha 2] 1.5
0		 1.5
0		 [lower-alpha 2] 5.6
2		 – 13.3
CEMOP[p 16] 18–28 Oct 2021 827 64.0 29.5
14		 39.4
20		 4.7
2		 13.5
6		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 7.1
3		 – 9.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 17] 15 Jun 2021 850 ? 32.3
16		 41.9
21		 2.4
0		 13.0
6		 [lower-alpha 2] 1.7
0		 1.7
0		 [lower-alpha 2] 4.9
2		 – 9.6
UCAM[p 18] 10–17 May 2021 800 59.2 27.1
13		 39.7
20		 3.4
1		 15.6
8		 [lower-alpha 2] – 0.7
0		 [lower-alpha 2] 4.6
2		 3.1
1		 12.6
CEMOP[p 19] 4–14 May 2021 820 63.3 27.6
14		 43.7
22		 3.4
1		 13.7
6		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.3
2		 – 16.1
Murcia Electoral[p 20] 16–17 Mar 2021 675 ? 31.3
16		 30.9
16		 5.7
3		 16.4
8		 5.5
2		 2.2
0		 2.4
0		 – – 2.1
0		 0.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 21] 14 Mar 2021 850 ? 33.3
17		 40.1
20		 2.8
0		 12.4
6		 4.4
2		 1.7
0		 1.8
0		 0.4
0		 – – 6.8
SyM Consulting[p 22][p 23] 12–13 Mar 2021 1,076 61.7 27.9
14/15		 36.5
19		 3.0
0		 22.2
11/12		 2.8
0		 2.4
0		 1.7
0		 1.4
0		 – – 8.6
Sigma Dos/La Verdad[p 24][p 25] 10–12 Mar 2021 1,100 ? 29.1
14		 35.8
17/18		 6.7
3		 18.2
8/9		 5.0
2		 – – – – – 6.7
UCAM[p 26] 9–23 Dec 2020 809 59.2 30.5
15		 34.1
17		 7.6
3		 13.4
7		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 6.9
3		 – 3.6
CEMOP[p 27] 14–22 Dec 2020 824 64.4 27.6
14		 38.7
19		 7.2
3		 15.6
7		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.1
2		 – 11.1
SyM Consulting[p 28][p 29] 16–18 Oct 2020 1,131 61.3 29.1
15		 34.1
17/18		 3.4
1		 20.3
10		 3.7
1/2		 2.6
0		 2.7
0		 1.6
0		 – – 5.0
CEMOP[p 30] 2–15 Oct 2020 825 64.9 27.3
13		 39.3
20		 6.8
3		 15.7
7		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 4.9
2		 – 12.0
Murcia Electoral[p 31][p 32] 29 Jul–5 Aug 2020 1,841 ? 31.4
16		 33.9
17		 9.6
5		 10.9
5		 5.1
2		 2.3
0		 2.2
0		 0.4
0		 – 1.9
0		 2.5
Murcia Electoral[p 33][p 34] 2–9 Jun 2020 1,721 ? 29.6
15		 34.1
18		 9.2
4		 11.8
6		 5.7
2		 2.2
0		 2.5
0		 0.3
0		 – 2.2
0		 4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 35][p 36] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 33.6
16		 38.5
19		 6.5
3		 11.4
5		 4.3
2		 1.7
0		 1.7
0		 0.9
0		 – – 4.9
CEMOP[p 37] 20–29 Apr 2020 804 64.2 31.0
15		 38.8
19		 7.9
3/4		 11.8
5/6		 [lower-alpha 2] – – [lower-alpha 2] 5.5
2		 – 7.8
SyM Consulting[p 38] 30–31 Mar 2020 1,089 60.6 30.6
15/16		 33.8
17		 8.7
4		 14.8
7		 3.4
1/2		 2.6
0		 2.3
0		 1.5
0		 – – 3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 39] 6–8 Dec 2019 ? ? 26.0
12/15		 25.4
12/14		 7.8
3/4		 24.3
11/14		 6.6
2/3		 2.9
0/1		 2.8
0/1		 1.7
0		 – 1.0
0		 0.6
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 — 68.0 24.8
12		 26.5
13		 7.4
3		 28.0
13		 [lower-alpha 2] – 0.3
0		 [lower-alpha 2] 8.9
4		 1.9
0		 1.5
Sigma Dos/La Verdad[p 40][p 41] 9–10 Jul 2019 600 ? 35.4
18		 31.2
15		 9.6
4		 11.9
6		 5.3
2		 – – – – – 4.2
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 — 62.3 32.5
17		 32.4
16		 12.0
6		 9.5
4		 5.6
2		 2.2
0		 2.0
0		 2.0
0		 – – 0.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Results
← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
People's Party (PP)
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)
Vox (Vox)
United We Can (Podemos–IU–AV)1
Blank ballots
Total 45±0
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast / turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters
Sources
Footnotes:

Notes
  1. Results for Podemos–Equo (5.57%, 2 seats) and Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalistas) (2.02%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
  2. Within Unidas Podemos.
  3. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "López Miras se queda a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2023.
  2. "Encuesta electoral: el PP empataría con el PSOE y se aleja de un Gobierno en solitario". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 15 March 2023.
  3. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Invierno 2023" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 16 February 2023.
  4. "López Miras ganaría las elecciones en la Región de Murcia, superaría a toda la izquierda y podría gobernar sin Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 January 2023.
  5. "[AUT] REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 16/01/2023: PODEMOS-IU 6,2% (2), PSOE 29,3% (14/15), Cs 2,5%, PP 41,4% (20/21), VOX 15,3% (7)". El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 January 2023.
  6. "Vox se come el hueco de Cs, con seis escaños más y el apoyo de uno de cada cinco murcianos". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 4 January 2023.
  7. "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  8. "Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  9. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Otoño 2022" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 11 November 2022.
  10. "Vox triplicaría sus diputados en las próximas elecciones regionales, según una encuesta". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 17 July 2022.
  11. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta InvyMark 17/07/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,5% (3), PSOE 29,9% (14/15), Cs 2,1%, PP 33,5% (16/17), VOX 24,3% (11/12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 July 2022.
  12. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Primavera 2022" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 5 July 2022.
  13. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Mayo de 2022" (PDF). UCAM (in Spanish). 25 May 2022.
  14. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Invierno 2022" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 21 March 2022.
  15. "EP R. Murcia (31O): El PP sigue dependiendo de Vox para gobernar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 1 November 2021.
  16. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Otoño 2021" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 15 November 2021.
  17. "ElectoPanel R. Murcia (15J): Ciudadanos se quedaría fuera del Parlamento regional". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 June 2021.
  18. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Mayo de 2021" (PDF). UCAM (in Spanish). 22 May 2021.
  19. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Primavera 2021" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 3 June 2021.
  20. "Sondeo". Murcia Electoral (in Spanish). 18 March 2021.
  21. "RMurciaPanel (15M): López-Miras sale reforzado y alcanza el 40%. Cs desaparece y Vox, llave de gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 March 2021.
  22. "Estimación Marzo 2021. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 March 2021.
  23. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 15/03/2021: CR 1,4%, PODEMOS-EQUO 2,8%, PSOE 27,9% (14/15), MC-CCD 2,4%, SR 1,7%, Cs 3,0%, PP 36,5% (19), VOX 22,2% (11/12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2021.
  24. "Siete de cada diez votantes de Ciudadanos rechazan la moción de censura en la Región". La Verdad (in Spanish). 14 March 2021.
  25. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 14/03/2021: PODEMOS-EQUO 5,0% (2), PSOE 29,1% (14), Cs 6,7% (3), PP 35,8% (17/18), VOX 18,2% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 March 2021.
  26. "El PP podría mantenerse en el Gobierno regional pero solo apoyado o en coalición con Vox, según un barómetro de la UCAM". Europa Press (in Spanish). 13 January 2021.
  27. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Invierno 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 25 January 2021.
  28. "Estimación Octubre 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 November 2020.
  29. "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 06/11/2020: CR 1,6%, PODEMOS-EQUO 3,7% (1/2), PSOE 29,1% (15), MC-CCD 2,6%, SR 2,7%, Cs 3,4% (1), PP 34,1% (17/18), VOX 20,3% (10)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2020.
  30. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Escenarios Políticos ante la Segunda Ola de la Pandemia. Otoño 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 November 2020.
  31. "El PP ganaría la elecciones autonómicas aunque seguiría necesitando a Vox y Ciudadanos para gobernar según el último sondeo de Murcia Electoral". Murcia Actualidad (in Spanish). 17 August 2020.
  32. "Cs volvería a tener la llave para decidir el bloque ganador entre PP y PSOE en la Región". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 17 August 2020.
  33. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Elecciones Autonómicas. Junio de 2020" (PDF). Murcia Electoral (in Spanish). 10 June 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 June 2020.
  34. "El PP sería la primera fuerza en la Región y podría gobernar con VOX". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 June 2020.
  35. "EP (17My): R. Murcia – subida de PP y Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  36. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  37. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Cambios y Permanencias. Primavera 2020" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 May 2020.
  38. "Estimación Marzo 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 April 2020.
  39. "ElectoPanel (Región de Murcia 10Dic): Vox le disputa la hegemonía de la derecha al PP. MC Cartagena y Somos Región, al borde del escaño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 December 2019.
  40. "El PSOE ganaría con más ventaja en la Región de Murcia y Vox le daría el 'sorpasso' a Ciudadanos". La Verdad (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
  41. "Estimación de voto en julio de 2019". La Verdad (in Spanish). 15 July 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. "Diputadas y Diputados regionales". www.asambleamurcia.es (in Spanish). Regional Assembly of Murcia. Retrieved 13 October 2019.
  6. Ferrán, Jaime (19 January 2023). "La nueva diputada de Equo entrará en la Asamblea a mediados de febrero". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 February 2023.
  7. "José Vélez gana las Primarias del PSRM con el 81,7% de los votos" (in Spanish). Murcia: Europa Press. 20 November 2021. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
  8. G. Valenzuela, Antonio (28 September 2020). "Ana Martínez Vidal, nueva coordinadora autonómica de Cs en la Región de Murcia". La Razón (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 13 March 2021.
  9. Gómez, David (8 February 2023). "María José Ros liderará la candidatura autonómica de CS al ser la única que logra los avales". La Verdad (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 February 2023.
  10. "Vox designa a José Ángel Antelo como candidato a presidir la Región de Murcia". La Verdad (in Spanish). 3 January 2023. Retrieved 8 January 2023.
  11. Marcos, Ana; Vadillo, Virginia (27 September 2019). "Los dos diputados autonómicos de Podemos en Murcia se pasan al partido de Errejón". El País (in Spanish). Madrid/Murcia. Retrieved 27 September 2019.
  12. D. Quintero, Carmen (20 June 2020). "Javier Sánchez elegido nuevo líder de Podemos en la Región de Murcia". La Razón (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 13 March 2021.
  13. Calvo, Erena (18 January 2023). "Podemos e IU acuerdan una candidatura conjunta para las autonómicas y municipales en la Región de Murcia". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 18 January 2023.
  14. Ferrán, Jaime (30 January 2023). "La Coalición Verde echa a andar sin Podemos e IU, aunque no pierde la esperanza". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 February 2023.
  15. Benito, Pilar (18 March 2023). "La diputada regional Helena Vidal lidera la coalición Más Región-Verdes Equo". La Verdad (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 March 2023.
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